Groundhog Day, a day in which far too many people eagerly await the weather predictions of the "Marmota Monax", has resulted in a 37% accuracy over the past 40 years. Not a great track record if you are making plans for a spring warm up. You are better off flipping a coin and making the prediction yourself or planning for the opposite of Punxsutawney Phil's prognostications. But, the idea of an animal predicting the remaining length of winter isn't a new concept. Imbolc, a Gaelic festival, dates back hundreds of years and includes weather divination. People would focus on the winter dens of serpents and badgers to see if they would emerge from their winter slumber on February 1st, marking the beginning of the spring season.
Another source for weather prophecy is the Old Farmer's Almanac. The first publication of the Farmer's Almanac was released in 1792 and has been in continuous print every year since. And, instead of relying on a rodent to make assumptions about the weather, the Almanac's weather predictions are based on a formula created by Robert B. Thomas, after an extensive study of weather patterns, solar activity, and astronomy cycles. This formula is still used today, with a few modifications based on climatology studies, and it uses the 30 year statistical average to predict temperature and precipitation deviations. Thomas' increased scientific approach resulted in accuracy gains of 10-15% over its animal counterparts. But, that's still only equivalent to a coin flip.
The strangest form of weather prediction I have read about involves an onion. Cromniomancy uses the sprouting tendencies, skin thickness, and moisture content of onions to predict everything from the location of lost loved ones to the amount of rain you will receive in each month of the year. Regardless of which method you choose to accept or not accept, weather prediction has been a part of human culture for many generations, and it will be an important part of our future.
"The best way to predict the future is to invent it." - Alan Kay
Another source for weather prophecy is the Old Farmer's Almanac. The first publication of the Farmer's Almanac was released in 1792 and has been in continuous print every year since. And, instead of relying on a rodent to make assumptions about the weather, the Almanac's weather predictions are based on a formula created by Robert B. Thomas, after an extensive study of weather patterns, solar activity, and astronomy cycles. This formula is still used today, with a few modifications based on climatology studies, and it uses the 30 year statistical average to predict temperature and precipitation deviations. Thomas' increased scientific approach resulted in accuracy gains of 10-15% over its animal counterparts. But, that's still only equivalent to a coin flip.
The strangest form of weather prediction I have read about involves an onion. Cromniomancy uses the sprouting tendencies, skin thickness, and moisture content of onions to predict everything from the location of lost loved ones to the amount of rain you will receive in each month of the year. Regardless of which method you choose to accept or not accept, weather prediction has been a part of human culture for many generations, and it will be an important part of our future.
"The best way to predict the future is to invent it." - Alan Kay
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