As the days get longer and the sun shines brighter, we think more of the melting snow and the spring thaw, but there are a lot of people raising concerns over this year's snow melt.  The Wausau area has received over 60" of snow this winter, which is approaching a record, and much of the surrounding region has similar numbers.  We have been somewhat lucky that our snow has been very dry for the most part.  The snow to water equivalent of this dry snow is only 15:1, which means that the liquid equivalent is about 4".  Had it been wet snow for much of the winter, its conceivable that the liquid equivalent would be closer to 8-10", making for a much higher level of concern.  But, nevertheless, the 4" is still causing anxiety.  There are a number of factors that go into snow melt conditions; like thermal radiation, humidity, liquid precipitation, as well as the temperature, but I will just cover some basic ideas and numbers to give you an idea of the impact this abnormal winter may have on our spring.

The easiest way for me to understand the impact of melting snow, is to watch the data provided by the Wisconsin River gages at Merrill and Rothschild. (http://waterdata.usgs.gov/WI/nwis/current/?)  Merrill is considered the southern end of the Upper Wisconsin River Watershed.  The Upper Wisconsin River Watershed covers roughly 2760 square miles, and contains 34% of Wisconsin's 15,057 lakes in addition to 17 tributary river watersheds like the Prairie, Spirit, and Tomahawk Rivers.  The Merrill gage helps me better understand what's headed in our direction.  The Rothschild location watershed area increases to 4020 square miles with the addition of the Rib, Eau Claire, and Trappe Rivers to name a few, and helps me better understand what may happen to areas South of Wausau.  The USGS uses square miles to describe the watershed area, making it a little difficult to understand.  The acreage and square foot equivalents are hard to comprehend as well, but in order to get the point across I'll give you the numbers.  4020 square miles is equivalent to 2.6 million acres, or twice the size of Delaware.  The square foot comparison is even more mind boggling at 112 billion square feet.  This means with a liquid equivalent of 4" on average across the watershed area, we are looking at more than 37 billion cubic feet of liquid (5 billion gallons), which is roughly 18-20% higher than normal.

These gages typically record gage height in feet and discharge in cubic feet per second.  Right now, the gage in Merrill is frozen and not displaying information, however, the gage height in Rothschild is recording 13.72 feet with a discharge of 2580 cubic feet per second.  If you look at the historical data for the past 100 years, you begin to see an increase in flow rates starting around March 10th, with highest average flow in the middle of April, and they finally return to average numbers near the end of June.  So what is average?  At its highest point in the middle of April, the Rothschild location averages 8700 cubic feet per second, which typically equates to a gage height of approximately 17.8 feet.  That sounds like a big difference from the 13.72 feet we have currently, but the National Weather Service defines Action or Bank-Full stage at 18 feet, and lowland flooding begins to occur when you get to 20.5 feet.  If this spring season is similar to historic average, even with the 20% increase in moisture, the maximum discharge in April would be around 10,000 cubic feet per second.  This equates to about 18.5 feet at the gage.  Still below flood stages.  Where the real concern lies, is in the rate of snow melt.  The approximate 100 day melt cycle would be ideal, but if it were to shorten due to prolonged increases in temperature or increased rainfall in March and April we may have some validated concerns.  The National Weather Service is currently predicting a 50% chance of flooding this spring in our area.  So, it's essentially a coin toss at this point.  Either way it is something to watch, especially if you are a paddler or fisherman waiting to get on the water this spring.

"We must build dikes of courage to hold back the flood of fear." Martin Luther King Jr. 

After yesterday's 6-8" of snow and the forecast for 8-12" more on Thursday, it doesn't seem like Spring is coming anytime soon.  But, when it does get here, you want to be ready for the start of backpacking / paddling / biking season.
 
Much like any other sport or athletic activity, there are a number of physical fitness components that go into these outdoor activities.  The major components like Cardiovascular Endurance, Muscle Strength and Endurance, and Flexibility are what most people think of when training, but it's the subcomponents of fitness that often make the biggest difference.  Consider these subcomponents in your preparation for the Spring thaw. 

1. Balance - being able to maintain a precise position
2. Coordination - the ability to use different parts of the body together smoothly and efficiently
3. Agility - staying under control when changing directions
4. Reaction - the speed at which you react to stimuli
5. Speed - the time required to do certain activities
6. Power - the speed at which you can exert a particular amount of strength

Balance and Coordination are essential for efficient paddling and biking, and navigating unusual terrains.  Agility and Reaction often come into play when external forces are applied; think of a strong wind, increased current, deteriorating terrain, or rogue wave.  And finally, Speed and Power, help you cover more ground in a shorter amount of time.  Incorporate these 6 subcomponents into your training and enjoy your time outdoors.  Check out this zero-equipment routine from Fitness Blender that addresses a number of these areas as well as core and lower body strength essential for any activity. 

http://www.fitnessblender.com/v/article-detail/Balance-Workout-at-Home-Balance-Training-Exercises/7k/

On this 51st day of Winter, Central Wisconsin is again experiencing sub-zero temperatures.  For those keeping track, this is day 34 of 51 that we have been in the negatives.  This is in stark contrast to the 4 days in which we saw temperatures above freezing.  If you were to look at this winter as a whole, the average day starts at -4 and only reaches a high of +15.  These temperatures have even the most die hard Winter enthusiast wanting Spring, and who can blame them.  I like to think of myself as a hardy soul that can handle most any weather conditions, but I have to admit that my mind, as of late, has wandered towards sunnier, warmer days in a canoe or kayak.  And, as I think about tossing the canoe on my car and heading to my favorite body of water, I also have to think about how canoeing may change in the near future. 

This year will be the end of an era of sorts for the canoe industry.  PolyOne Corporation, the sole manufacturer of Royalex, has announced that it will stop production of the material in April 2014.   Royalex has been in use since the early 1970's and has always maintained a strong presence in the  canoe market, offering a durable and relatively inexpensive option to materials like Kevlar, Carbon Fiber, and Cedar Strips.  So what's next for the canoe industry? 

Many canoe manufacturers are working hard to procure enough Royalex sheet stock to complete their 2014 product offering, but most assume there will be none available for 2015 boats.  Since the July 2013 announcement from PolyOne Corp, a number of manufacturers have been researching alternative materials that will fill the void in the entry level and whitewater segments of their business.  Some small manufacturers will likely face some hard business decisions in the coming year, and the industry in general will need to give this a lot of thought, but much like the birth of Royalex as an alternative to Aluminum in the 70's, a product will come along to take its place.  We only need to look back as early as 2005 to observe a similar instance in the watersport industry, when Clark Form, the single supplier of surfboard blanks closed.  This crisis ended with the development of Expanded Polystyrene (EPS) surfboards.  So, don't put a fork in the canoe industry just yet, because as we know "Necessity if the Mother of all Invention".

"The crisis of today, is the joke of tomorrow."  - H.G. Wells

Groundhog Day, a day in which far too many people eagerly await the weather predictions of the "Marmota Monax", has resulted in a 37% accuracy over the past 40 years.  Not a great track record if you are making plans for a spring warm up.  You are better off flipping a coin and making the prediction yourself or planning for the opposite of Punxsutawney Phil's prognostications.  But, the idea of an animal predicting the remaining length of winter isn't a new concept.  Imbolc, a Gaelic festival, dates back hundreds of years and includes weather divination.  People would focus on the winter dens of serpents and badgers to see if they would emerge from their winter slumber on February 1st, marking the beginning of the spring season. 

Another source for weather prophecy is the Old Farmer's Almanac.  The first publication of the Farmer's Almanac was released in 1792 and has been in continuous print every year since.  And, instead of relying on a rodent to make assumptions about the weather, the Almanac's weather predictions are based on a formula created by Robert B. Thomas, after an extensive study of weather patterns, solar activity, and astronomy cycles.  This formula is still used today, with a few modifications based on climatology studies, and it uses the 30 year statistical average to predict temperature and precipitation deviations.  Thomas' increased scientific approach resulted in accuracy gains of 10-15% over its animal counterparts.  But, that's still only equivalent to a coin flip.  

The strangest form of weather prediction I have read about involves an onion.  Cromniomancy uses the sprouting tendencies, skin thickness, and moisture content of onions to predict everything from the location of lost loved ones to the amount of rain you will receive in each month of the year.  Regardless of which method you choose to accept or not accept, weather prediction has been a part of human culture for many generations, and it will be an important part of our future.

"The best way to predict the future is to invent it." - Alan Kay